If you’re interested in betting on football and in trying to make it pay; your bets should always have a solid grounding in historical statistical trends. That isn’t to say you shouldn’t exercise some qualitative judgement; merely that the best betting strategies are a based on good judgement which is grounded in solid statistical evidence.
There are various websites around the web specialising in providing statistics football. Some better than others, and those stats may surprise you.
So if you’re betting on correct scores in the English Premier League, for example, it may benefit you to realise that 80% of last season’s games won were won by a one or two goal margin, whilst 57% of all games won were won by a one goal margin. Or how about the fact that Arsenal – whose lack of defensive prowess was widely discussed by ‘expert’ pundits all season long – actually topped the table for clean sheets?
Stats like these can help form your judgement of when the odds are skewed in your favour by commonly held misconceptions.
You may argue that a purely statistical approach is better and there may be some merit in that – but then there isn’t as much enjoyment in it. Taking a purely statistical approach will probably work out better for punters than gambling in online casinos but there simply isn’t as much fun in proceedings.
Of course, if you gamble in casinos long enough, the house edge will gradually win out, so this makes no statistical sense unless you’re a card counter at Blackjack or poker tournament expert – or you’re ‘stoozing’ and taking continual advantage of the various bonuses on offer.
Yet a statistically-based approach to football betting probably only has a similar chance of working – even if you bet on the exchanges – as you have to cover the commission. So a qualitative approach based on overall stats but mixed in with your own judgement has the best chance of coming out ahead.